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Yesterday, stock index futures fluctuated upward, and the main contract of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock index futures (IF) rose 0%.Baccarat740.43%, the main contract of Shanghai 50 stock index futures (IH) rose 0.35%, the main contract of CSI 500 stock index futures (IC) rose 1.20%, and the main contract of CSI 1000 stock index futures (IM) rose 2.34%. Treasury bond futures showed a correction, the main contract of 2-year treasury bond futures (TS) fell 0.07%, the main contract of 5-year treasury bond futures (TF) fell 0.17%, and the main contract of 10-year treasury bond futures (T) fell 0.36%. The main contract of 30-year treasury bond futures (TL) fell 1.17%.
Referring to the recent market buzz about the correction of high dividend assets, Ping Shuai, a researcher at Hongye Futures Stock Index, said that in the current environment where yields continue to decline, high dividend assets have attracted the attention of investors with their high dividend advantages. at the same time, it also coincides with the guidance of regulatory policies, and high dividend assets continue to rise under the influence of many factors. With the influx of investors, its performance-to-price ratio is bound to decrease, and faced with the time point of the release of operating performance report recently, it is doubtful whether some industries can continue to maintain high profits.
Wang Yahang, a researcher in the Huatai Futures Stock Index, told reporters that in the stock capital market, to maintain the plate rotation effect, it is necessary to switch between high and low to release emotions, and the high dividend style at a high level is cashed in profits. in particular, the coal, oil and petrochemical industries, which continued to rise during the year, but this does not mean the end of the high dividend asset market. From the new "National Nine articles" and other policies, high dividend assets dividend will be the long-term main line, after the change of hands between and within the plate, it will continue to rise.
In addition, the reporter learned that this week the market has entered a "pre-festival mode", trading volume has declined, funds have not formed a joint force, and some funds have sold profitable assets from a safe point of view, causing a small shock in the market.
Looking at the bond market, treasury bond futures fell across the board on Wednesday, with the main contract of 30-year treasury bond futures falling 1.17%, the second largest one-day decline of the year. "the long rise in its own treasury bonds has put it at a high price and made more profits." Pingshuai said that yesterday the central bank signalled that long-term Treasury yields would rise with the sale of ultra-long-term government bonds, so treasury bond futures opened low in early trading yesterday, with 30-year Treasuries falling most significantly. The influx of money from the government bond market into the stock market was one of the factors contributing to yesterday's stock market rally. In addition, yesterday's US April PMI data was lower than expected, and factors such as large northbound capital inflows also contributed to the recovery of the domestic stock market.
Wang Yahang believes that the "stock-bond seesaw" effect does exist under certain conditions and is closely related to macroeconomic conditions and market liquidity. The government bond market weakened yesterday, releasing liquidity for the stock market and driving the equity market up.
Finally, looking at the Hong Kong stock market, Hong Kong stocks have been strengthening in recent days. Hong Kong stocks continued to be strong yesterday, with the Hang Seng Index closing up 2.21% and the Hang Seng Technology Index up 3.61%. Wang Peicheng, senior analyst of macro strategy for Eastern Securities Futures, explained: first of all, on April 19, the Securities Regulatory Commission issued five capital market cooperation measures with Hong Kong, reflecting the policy side to consolidate and support Hong Kong's position as a financial center. The recent trend of capital increase in Hong Kong stocks has further expanded. As of April 23, the cumulative net inflow of southbound funds in April was 69.3 billion Hong Kong dollars, the highest in the same period in history. Secondly, under the influence of factors such as the expansion of geo-conflicts in the Middle East and the continuous revision of the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, the recent global risk assets are under pressure, and there has been a significant correction in stock indexes in Asia, Japan, South Korea, India, Vietnam, and other countries. In this process, A shares and Hong Kong stocks have shown a certain degree of "desensitization", the overall trend is stable, and the rebalance of international capital positions has also formed a certain support for Hong Kong stocks. Finally, the better-than-expected repair of the domestic economy in the first quarter is also conducive to stabilizing the confidence of equity investors. From the internal and external market comparison, this week A-share contraction shock or affected by the funds holding currency festival, does not mean that A-share will appear obvious pullback.
When talking about the future, the interviewees were generally optimistic. Wang Peicheng believes that at present, the number of samples disclosed in the first quarterly report of listed companies is still too small, on the other hand, although the short-term performance pressure is obvious in industries such as coal and building materials, with the increase in fiscal expenditure in the second quarter, there is still room for upward revision in these industries. The second quarter is expected to enter the nominal GDP repair slope of the fastest stage, it is recommended to treat equity assets with bullish thinking.
Wang Yahang said that the new "National Nine articles" has laid a solid foundation for the long bull of the stock market and is optimistic about the future market. However, the new policy still needs some time to land, and it also needs to digest the expected changes brought about by external liquidity and geopolitics in the short term. In the case of large domestic funds backing up, the probability of panic decline in the market is relatively low. We can properly grasp the current opportunity to absorb low-level chips.
Futures daily